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Alianza Valledupar vs Deportivo Pereira — Primera A 2024

Alianza Valledupar
Alianza Valledupar
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Deportivo Pereira
Deportivo Pereira
F. Pardo 28'
7/19/2025Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 2Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Alianza Valledupar48%
×Draw27%
Deportivo Pereira25%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alianza Valledupar
1.38
Deportivo Pereira
0.92

Alianza Valledupar creates 50% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 52 away

creates per match

Alianza Valledupar
1.24
Deportivo Pereira
0.85

allows per match

Alianza Valledupar
0.98
Deportivo Pereira
1.52

finishing

Alianza Valledupar+0.00on par
Deportivo Pereira+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Valledupar ↓

Deportivo Pereira →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Alianza Valledupar or draw
75%
Alianza Valledupar or Deportivo Pereira
73%
Draw or Deportivo Pereira
52%

Winning margin

Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+
23%
Deportivo Pereira wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals
75%
Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals
40%
Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals
16%
Deportivo Pereira 1+ goals
60%
Deportivo Pereira 2+ goals
23%
Deportivo Pereira 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)
65%
Deportivo Pereira (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Valledupar at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.98 · 51 matches

Deportivo Pereira away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.52 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Valledupar attack 1.24 + Deportivo Pereira defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.38

Deportivo Pereira attack 0.85 + Alianza Valledupar defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Alianza Valledupar scores more
48%
level
27%
Deportivo Pereira scores more
25%

Alianza Valledupar at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Alianza Valledupar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
F. PardoAlianza ValleduparAlianza Valledupar · F
7.9

Match Events

28'
F. Pardo↳ K. Suarez
35'
Julián BazánGoal cancelled
45+2'
Edwin Velasco
52'
D. Quintero← J. Bazan
52'
S. J. Merheg← M. Perez
62'
Edwin Torres
64'
J. Munoz← E. Torres
64'
F. Mosquera← J. Castillo
73'
R. Manjarres← J. Munoz
74'
M. Gil← F. Pardo
75'
J. Largacha← G. Torres
75'
J. Ararat← E. A. Moreno Gomez
78'
Kelvin Osorio
79'
O. Albornoz← Y. Quinones
80'
J. Figueroa← A. Del Valle
84'
Omar Albornoz
90+4'
Fabián Mosquera

Possession

47%Alianza

Shots

10Alianza

Pass accuracy

51%Alianza

Statistics

AlianzaDeportivo
Overview
47%Possession53%
10Total Shots14
0.43Expected Goals (xG)1.11
5Corners7
10Fouls10
Shots
10Total Shots14
4On Target4
5Off Target5
1Blocked5
4Inside Box11
6Outside Box3
Passing
47%Possession53%
346Total Passes386
270Accurate Passes292
78%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
4Saves3
Discipline
10Fouls10
2Yellow Cards3
8Offsides2

Match Recap: Alianza Valledupar vs Deportivo Pereira

Alianza Valledupar beat Deportivo Pereira 1-0 in Primera A on July 19, 2025.

Goals: F. Pardo (28').

Deportivo Pereira controlled possession (53%) and registered 14 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau in Valledupar.