Alianza Valledupar 1–2 Deportivo Pereira

Alianza Valledupar

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Deportivo Pereira

A. Rentería 80'

J. Jordán 89'

A. Piedrahita 38'

2/12/2024

Primera A · Apertura - 6Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 131+ matches

Alianza Valledupar45%

×Draw27%

Deportivo Pereira28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alianza ValleduparExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Pereira

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.03

Alianza Valledupar

1.37

Deportivo Pereira

1.03

Alianza Valledupar creates 33% more chances

Season form · 166 home / 131 away

1.31

creates per match

0.93

1.13

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Alianza Valledupar

1.31

Deportivo Pereira

0.93

allows per match

Alianza Valledupar

1.13

Deportivo Pereira

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alianza Valledupar+0.00on par

Deportivo Pereira+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Valledupar ↓

Deportivo Pereira →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Alianza Valledupar or draw

72%

Alianza Valledupar or Deportivo Pereira

73%

Draw or Deportivo Pereira

55%

Winning margin

Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+

21%

Deportivo Pereira wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals

75%

Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals

40%

Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals

16%

Deportivo Pereira 1+ goals

64%

Deportivo Pereira 2+ goals

28%

Deportivo Pereira 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)

61%

Deportivo Pereira (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Valledupar at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.13 · 166 matches

Deportivo Pereira away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.43 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Valledupar attack 1.31 + Deportivo Pereira defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.37

Deportivo Pereira attack 0.93 + Alianza Valledupar defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Alianza Valledupar scores more

45%

level

27%

Deportivo Pereira scores more

28%

Alianza Valledupar at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Alianza Valledupar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

77

A. Piedrahita

Deportivo Pereira · M

7.9

Match Events

23'

S. Gómez← G. Lencina

28'

Royscer Colpa

31'

Ewil MurilloGoal cancelled

38'

A. Piedrahita↳ D. Quintero

40'

43'

50'

58'

58'

J. Castillo← E. Navarro

64'

Pedro Franco

65'

J. Contreras← S. Cárdenas

74'

R. Blanco← M. Gil

75'

S. Orozco← R. Manjarrés

77'

Y. Cabrera← D. Quintero

77'

N. Rengifo← S. Gómez

80'

A. Rentería↳ C. Blanco

82'

Joel Contreras

85'

Joel ContrerasPenalty cancelled

88'

J. Jordán← E. Murillo

89'

J. Jordán

90+6'

Pedro Franco

90+6'

Pedro Franco

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlianzaDeportivo

Overview

61%Possession39%

18Total Shots16

5Corners4

10Fouls19

Shots

18Total Shots16

6On Target4

8Off Target9

4Blocked3

7Inside Box12

11Outside Box4

Passing

61%Possession39%

360Total Passes235

283Accurate Passes161

79%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

10Fouls19

4Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

0Offsides2

Match Recap: Alianza Valledupar vs Deportivo Pereira

Deportivo Pereira beat Alianza Valledupar 2-1 in Primera A on February 12, 2024.

Goals: A. Piedrahita (38'), A. Rentería (80'), J. Jordán (89').

Alianza Valledupar controlled possession (61%) and registered 18 shots to 16.

The match was played at Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau in Valledupar.

Alianza Valledupar vs Deportivo Pereira — Primera A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Alianza Valledupar vs Deportivo Pereira