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Deportivo Pasto W vs Atlético Bucaramanga W — Liga Femenina 2020

Deportivo Pasto W
Deportivo Pasto W
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Atlético Bucaramanga W
Atlético Bucaramanga W
4/13/2023Liga FemeninaLiga Femenina · Apertura - 10Estadio Departamental Libertad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Deportivo Pasto W58%
×Draw23%
Atlético Bucaramanga W19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Pasto W
1.78
Atlético Bucaramanga W
0.92

Deportivo Pasto W creates 93% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 39 away

creates per match

Deportivo Pasto W
1.13
Atlético Bucaramanga W
0.49

allows per match

Deportivo Pasto W
1.34
Atlético Bucaramanga W
2.44

finishing

Deportivo Pasto W+0.00on par
Atlético Bucaramanga W+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Pasto W ↓

Atlético Bucaramanga W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Deportivo Pasto W or draw
81%
Deportivo Pasto W or Atlético Bucaramanga W
77%
Draw or Atlético Bucaramanga W
42%

Winning margin

Deportivo Pasto W wins by 2+
33%
Atlético Bucaramanga W wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Deportivo Pasto W 1+ goals
83%
Deportivo Pasto W 2+ goals
53%
Deportivo Pasto W 3+ goals
26%
Atlético Bucaramanga W 1+ goals
60%
Atlético Bucaramanga W 2+ goals
23%
Atlético Bucaramanga W 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Pasto W (draw refunded)
75%
Atlético Bucaramanga W (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Pasto W at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.34 · 32 matches

Atlético Bucaramanga W away — creates 0.49, concedes 2.44 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Pasto W attack 1.13 + Atlético Bucaramanga W defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.78

Atlético Bucaramanga W attack 0.49 + Deportivo Pasto W defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Deportivo Pasto W scores more
58%
level
23%
Atlético Bucaramanga W scores more
19%

Deportivo Pasto W at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Deportivo Pasto W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Femenina: Deportivo Pasto W 1–0 Atlético Bucaramanga W

Deportivo Pasto W beat Atlético Bucaramanga W 1-0 in Liga Femenina on April 13, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Departamental Libertad in San Juan de Pasto.