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Atlético Bucaramanga W vs Deportivo Pasto W — Liga Femenina 2020

Atlético Bucaramanga W
Atlético Bucaramanga W
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Deportivo Pasto W
Deportivo Pasto W
3/18/2026Liga FemeninaLiga Femenina · Round 4Cancha Marte - UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Atlético Bucaramanga W35%
×Draw28%
Deportivo Pasto W37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Bucaramanga W
1.17
Deportivo Pasto W
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 33 away

creates per match

Atlético Bucaramanga W
0.55
Deportivo Pasto W
0.67

allows per match

Atlético Bucaramanga W
1.76
Deportivo Pasto W
1.79

finishing

Atlético Bucaramanga W+0.00on par
Deportivo Pasto W+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Bucaramanga W ↓

Deportivo Pasto W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Atlético Bucaramanga W or draw
63%
Atlético Bucaramanga W or Deportivo Pasto W
72%
Draw or Deportivo Pasto W
65%

Winning margin

Atlético Bucaramanga W wins by 2+
14%
Deportivo Pasto W wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Atlético Bucaramanga W 1+ goals
69%
Atlético Bucaramanga W 2+ goals
33%
Atlético Bucaramanga W 3+ goals
11%
Deportivo Pasto W 1+ goals
70%
Deportivo Pasto W 2+ goals
34%
Deportivo Pasto W 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Atlético Bucaramanga W (draw refunded)
48%
Deportivo Pasto W (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Bucaramanga W at home — creates 0.55, concedes 1.76 · 38 matches

Deportivo Pasto W away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.79 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Bucaramanga W attack 0.55 + Deportivo Pasto W defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.17

Deportivo Pasto W attack 0.67 + Atlético Bucaramanga W defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Atlético Bucaramanga W scores more
35%
level
28%
Deportivo Pasto W scores more
37%

Deportivo Pasto W at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Deportivo Pasto W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Femenina: Atlético Bucaramanga W 3–1 Deportivo Pasto W

Atlético Bucaramanga W beat Deportivo Pasto W 3-1 in Liga Femenina on March 18, 2026.

The match was played at Cancha Marte - UMT in Bucaramanga.