Deportivo Pasto vs Jaguares: Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Pasto

Preview

01:10

Jaguares

11/1/2026

Primera A · Clausura - 17Estadio Departamental Libertad

Big match

47%

Deportivo Pasto

model favours

47%30%23%

Deportivo Pasto sit 10, Jaguares 20 in the table

brightest fact of this match

1–0

likely score

68%

under 2.5 goals

37%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Deportivo Pasto47%

×Draw30%

Jaguares23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo PastoExpected goals in this matchJaguares

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.76

Deportivo Pasto

1.21

Jaguares

0.76

Deportivo Pasto creates 59% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

1.06

creates per match

0.68

0.84

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Deportivo Pasto

1.06

Jaguares

0.68

allows per match

Deportivo Pasto

0.84

Jaguares

1.36

+0.72scores more than expected

finishing

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

Deportivo Pasto+0.72scores more

Jaguares-0.25scores less

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Pasto ↓

Jaguares →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Deportivo Pasto or draw

77%

Deportivo Pasto or Jaguares

70%

Draw or Jaguares

53%

Winning margin

Deportivo Pasto wins by 2+

21%

Jaguares wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Deportivo Pasto 1+ goals

70%

Deportivo Pasto 2+ goals

34%

Deportivo Pasto 3+ goals

12%

Jaguares 1+ goals

53%

Jaguares 2+ goals

18%

Jaguares 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Pasto (draw refunded)

67%

Jaguares (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Pasto at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.84 · 9 matches

Jaguares away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.36 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Pasto attack 1.06 + Jaguares defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.21

Jaguares attack 0.68 + Deportivo Pasto defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Deportivo Pasto scores more

47%

level

30%

Jaguares scores more

23%

Deportivo Pasto at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Deportivo Pasto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

Deportivo Pasto

Defensively solid

Jaguares

Balanced

46%Possession46%

78%Pass accuracy78%

11.6Shots11.9

1.15xGBiggest gap0.95

Deportivo PastoJaguares

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

6

Deportivo Pasto

2

Draws

2

Jaguares

Avg goals: 1.9BTTS: 30%

3–20–01–10–11–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

Pasto

LLLLW

Jaguares

LWDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Deportivo Pasto face Jaguares (Primera A)

Primera A returns with Deportivo Pasto hosting Jaguares. Match starts November 1, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Deportivo Pasto host Jaguares at Estadio Departamental Libertad.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

Deportivo Pasto vs Jaguares — Primera A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Style Matchup

Head-to-head

Head to Head

Deportivo Pasto face Jaguares (Primera A)