Deportivo Pasto 4–0 Jaguares: Result & Stats

Deportivo Pasto

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Jaguares

A. Estacio 87', 19'

J. Escobar 77', 58'

5/8/2023

Primera A · Apertura - 18Estadio Departamental Libertad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Deportivo Pasto47%

×Draw30%

Jaguares23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo PastoExpected goals in this matchJaguares

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.76

Deportivo Pasto

1.21

Jaguares

0.76

Deportivo Pasto creates 59% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

1.06

creates per match

0.68

0.84

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Deportivo Pasto

1.06

Jaguares

0.68

allows per match

Deportivo Pasto

0.84

Jaguares

1.36

+0.72scores more than expected

finishing

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

Deportivo Pasto+0.72scores more

Jaguares-0.25scores less

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Pasto ↓

Jaguares →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Deportivo Pasto or draw

77%

Deportivo Pasto or Jaguares

70%

Draw or Jaguares

53%

Winning margin

Deportivo Pasto wins by 2+

21%

Jaguares wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Deportivo Pasto 1+ goals

70%

Deportivo Pasto 2+ goals

34%

Deportivo Pasto 3+ goals

12%

Jaguares 1+ goals

53%

Jaguares 2+ goals

18%

Jaguares 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Pasto (draw refunded)

67%

Jaguares (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Pasto at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.84 · 9 matches

Jaguares away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.36 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Pasto attack 1.06 + Jaguares defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.21

Jaguares attack 0.68 + Deportivo Pasto defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Deportivo Pasto scores more

47%

level

30%

Jaguares scores more

23%

Deportivo Pasto at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Deportivo Pasto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

A. Estacio

Deportivo Pasto · M

9.0

Match Events

19'

A. Estacio↳ C. Hidalgo

45'

J. Roa

46'

J. Escobar← C. Hidalgo

46'

J. Díaz← C. Pájaro

58'

J. Escobar↳ E. López

64'

C. Copete← K. Lenis

64'

Y. Arboleda← J. Guevara

65'

J. Viveros← P. Rojas

70'

M. Garavito← G. García

74'

E. Lopez

77'

J. Escobar↳ D. Moreno

78'

J. Garcia← B. De Alba

83'

D. Pino← J. Roa

84'

J. Campaña← D. Moreno

87'

A. Estacio↳ J. Campaña

88'

J. Malagón← J. Figueroa

90'

C. Copete

90+1'

J. Garcia

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportivoJaguares

Overview

47%Possession53%

14Total Shots9

7Corners1

17Fouls9

Shots

14Total Shots9

8On Target0

4Off Target6

2Blocked3

10Inside Box1

4Outside Box8

Passing

47%Possession53%

402Total Passes469

336Accurate Passes401

84%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls9

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0

Primera A: Deportivo Pasto 4–0 Jaguares

Deportivo Pasto beat Jaguares 4-0 in Primera A on May 8, 2023.

Goals: A. Estacio (19', 87'), J. Escobar (58', 77').

Jaguares controlled possession (53%) and registered 9 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estadio Departamental Libertad in San Juan de Pasto.

Deportivo Pasto vs Jaguares — Primera A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera A: Deportivo Pasto 4–0 Jaguares