Deportivo Pasto 3–1 Independiente Medellin

Deportivo Pasto

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Independiente Medellin

D. López 90+2', 85'

D. Moreno 55'

Yulián Gómez 24'

8/17/2023

Copa Colombia · Round of 16Estadio Departamental Libertad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Deportivo Pasto38%

×Draw26%

Independiente Medellin36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo PastoExpected goals in this matchIndependiente Medellin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.33

Deportivo Pasto

1.36

Independiente Medellin

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 23 away

1.69

creates per match

1.61

1.06

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Deportivo Pasto

1.69

Independiente Medellin

1.61

allows per match

Deportivo Pasto

1.06

Independiente Medellin

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Pasto+0.00on par

Independiente Medellin+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Pasto ↓

Independiente Medellin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Deportivo Pasto or draw

64%

Deportivo Pasto or Independiente Medellin

74%

Draw or Independiente Medellin

62%

Winning margin

Deportivo Pasto wins by 2+

17%

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Deportivo Pasto 1+ goals

74%

Deportivo Pasto 2+ goals

39%

Deportivo Pasto 3+ goals

16%

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

74%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

38%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Pasto (draw refunded)

51%

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Pasto at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

Independiente Medellin away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.04 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Pasto attack 1.69 + Independiente Medellin defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.36

Independiente Medellin attack 1.61 + Deportivo Pasto defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Deportivo Pasto scores more

38%

level

26%

Independiente Medellin scores more

36%

Deportivo Pasto at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Deportivo Pasto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

16'

24'

31'

37'

38'

38'

46'

J. Cardona← Y. Torres

46'

D. Londoño← M. Monsalve

54'

D. Loaiza← J. Alvarado

54'

L. Pons← B. León

55'

D. Moreno

56'

C. Ayala← J. Roa

56'

J. Campaña← D. Riascos

58'

70'

J. Hurtado← G. Britos

75'

D. López← E. López

77'

V. Moreno← D. Torres

80'

J. Cuesta← L. Chaverra

85'

D. López

88'

D. A. Loaiza Gutierrez

90+1'

I. Alba

90+2'

D. López

Deportivo

Independiente

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: F. Torres

46'▲J. Cardona←▼Y. Torres

56'▲C. Ayala←▼J. Roa

56'▲J. Campaña←▼D. Riascos

70'▲J. Hurtado←▼G. Britos

75'▲D. López←▼E. López

Deportivo Pasto substitutes

CardonaAyalaCampañaHurtadoLópezCabezasQuintero

Manager: A. Arias

46'▲D. Londoño←▼M. Monsalve

54'▲D. Loaiza←▼J. Alvarado

54'▲L. Pons←▼B. León

77'▲V. Moreno←▼D. Torres

80'▲J. Cuesta←▼L. Chaverra

Independiente Medellin substitutes

LondoñoLoaizaPonsMorenoCuestaCetréGómez