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Deportivo Pasto vs Independiente Medellin — Copa Colombia 2026

Deportivo Pasto
Deportivo Pasto
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Independiente Medellin
Independiente Medellinadvanced
A. Estupiñán 85' (pen)
A. Ricaurte 56'
A. Arregui 40'
9/25/2019Copa ColombiaCopa Colombia · Semi-finalsEstadio Municipal De Ipiales (Ipiales)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Deportivo Pasto38%
×Draw26%
Independiente Medellin36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Pasto
1.34
Independiente Medellin
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 22 away

creates per match

Deportivo Pasto
1.69
Independiente Medellin
1.55

allows per match

Deportivo Pasto
1.06
Independiente Medellin
1.00

finishing

Deportivo Pasto+0.00on par
Independiente Medellin+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Pasto ↓

Independiente Medellin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Deportivo Pasto or draw
64%
Deportivo Pasto or Independiente Medellin
74%
Draw or Independiente Medellin
62%

Winning margin

Deportivo Pasto wins by 2+
17%
Independiente Medellin wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Deportivo Pasto 1+ goals
74%
Deportivo Pasto 2+ goals
39%
Deportivo Pasto 3+ goals
15%
Independiente Medellin 1+ goals
73%
Independiente Medellin 2+ goals
38%
Independiente Medellin 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Pasto (draw refunded)
51%
Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Pasto at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

Independiente Medellin away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.00 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Pasto attack 1.69 + Independiente Medellin defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.34

Independiente Medellin attack 1.55 + Deportivo Pasto defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Deportivo Pasto scores more
38%
level
26%
Independiente Medellin scores more
36%

Deportivo Pasto at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Deportivo Pasto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
A. Cadavid
40'
A. Arregui
42'
E. Perlaza
50'
56'
A. Ricaurte
63'
A. Arregui
73'
G. Perea
75'
R. Vanegas
85'
A. EstupiñánPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Colombia: Deportivo Pasto 1–2 Independiente Medellin

Independiente Medellin beat Deportivo Pasto 2-1 in Copa Colombia on September 25, 2019.

Goals: A. Arregui (40'), A. Ricaurte (56'), A. Estupiñán (85' pen).

The match was played at Estadio Municipal De Ipiales (Ipiales).