Deportivo Pasto 2–1 Cucuta: Result & Stats

Deportivo Pasto

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Cucuta

R. Vanegas 50'

K. Rendón 46'

C. Valencia 64'

9/28/2019

Primera A · Clausura - 13Estadio Municipal de Ipiales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Deportivo Pasto46%

×Draw30%

Cucuta23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo PastoExpected goals in this matchCucuta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

0.76

Deportivo Pasto

1.20

Cucuta

0.76

Deportivo Pasto creates 58% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 8 away

1.06

creates per match

0.67

0.84

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Deportivo Pasto

1.06

Cucuta

0.67

allows per match

Deportivo Pasto

0.84

Cucuta

1.34

+0.72scores more than expected

finishing

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

Deportivo Pasto+0.72scores more

Cucuta+0.21scores more

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Pasto ↓

Cucuta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Deportivo Pasto or draw

77%

Deportivo Pasto or Cucuta

70%

Draw or Cucuta

54%

Winning margin

Deportivo Pasto wins by 2+

21%

Cucuta wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Deportivo Pasto 1+ goals

70%

Deportivo Pasto 2+ goals

34%

Deportivo Pasto 3+ goals

12%

Cucuta 1+ goals

53%

Cucuta 2+ goals

18%

Cucuta 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Pasto (draw refunded)

66%

Cucuta (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Pasto at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.84 · 9 matches

Cucuta away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.34 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Pasto attack 1.06 + Cucuta defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.20

Cucuta attack 0.67 + Deportivo Pasto defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Deportivo Pasto scores more

46%

level

30%

Cucuta scores more

23%

Deportivo Pasto at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Deportivo Pasto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

J. Chaverra

Cucuta · G

8.6

Match Events

3'

7'

38'

40'

45'

46'

50'

53'

J. Agudelo← J. Hernández

55'

Harrinson Mancilla

63'

Kevin Rendón

63'

C. Mina← A. Sarmiento

64'

C. Valencia

67'

D. Rojano← J. Guevara

68'

F. Ponce← D. Hernández

76'

D. Chica← A. Hinestroza

81'

W. De La Rosa← K. Rendón

89'

Fabian Viafara

90'

Wilfrido De la Rosa

90'

Diego Sanchez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportivoCucuta

Overview

64%Possession36%

21Total Shots14

8Corners4

11Fouls13

Shots

21Total Shots14

14On Target2

6Off Target8

1Blocked4

8Inside Box7

13Outside Box7

Passing

64%Possession36%

484Total Passes272

401Accurate Passes175

83%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

1Saves11

Discipline

11Fouls13

5Yellow Cards5

0Offsides2