Cucuta 1–3 Deportivo Pasto: Result & Stats

Cucuta

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Deportivo Pasto

L. Cabrera 51'

M. Quiñónes 74'

A. Estupiñán 44'

E. Moreno 19'

4/3/2019

Primera A · Apertura - 13Estadio General Santander

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Cucuta32%

×Draw28%

Deportivo Pasto40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CucutaExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Pasto

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.25

Cucuta

1.10

Deportivo Pasto

1.25

Deportivo Pasto creates 14% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

1.11

creates per match

1.24

1.25

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Cucuta

1.11

Deportivo Pasto

1.24

allows per match

Cucuta

1.25

Deportivo Pasto

1.09

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

+0.26scores more than expected

finishing

Cucuta+0.18scores more

Deportivo Pasto+0.26scores more

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cucuta ↓

Deportivo Pasto →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Cucuta or draw

60%

Cucuta or Deportivo Pasto

72%

Draw or Deportivo Pasto

68%

Winning margin

Cucuta wins by 2+

13%

Deportivo Pasto wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Cucuta 1+ goals

67%

Cucuta 2+ goals

30%

Cucuta 3+ goals

10%

Deportivo Pasto 1+ goals

71%

Deportivo Pasto 2+ goals

36%

Deportivo Pasto 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Cucuta (draw refunded)

45%

Deportivo Pasto (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cucuta at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.25 · 7 matches

Deportivo Pasto away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.09 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cucuta attack 1.11 + Deportivo Pasto defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.10

Deportivo Pasto attack 1.24 + Cucuta defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cucuta scores more

32%

level

28%

Deportivo Pasto scores more

40%

Deportivo Pasto at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Deportivo Pasto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

E. Moreno

Deportivo Pasto · M

8.0

Match Events

19'

22'

22'

26'

37'

44'

44'

A. Estupiñán↳ M. Vázquez

46'

C. Mosquera← W. Cosme

51'

L. Cabrera↳ R. Carvajal

55'

A. Figueroa← D. Giraldo

62'

Robert Carvajal

62'

Robert Carvajal

70'

D. Chica← J. Hernández

71'

Neto

74'

M. Quiñónes↳ F. Viáfara

79'

M. López← J. Solano

79'

R. Vanegas← M. Vázquez

83'

Ederson Moreno

87'

H. Rojas← A. Estupiñán

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CucutaDeportivo

Overview

59%Possession41%

7Total Shots12

2Corners6

20Fouls28

Shots

7Total Shots12

2On Target5

4Off Target6

1Blocked1

4Inside Box2

3Outside Box10

Passing

59%Possession41%

410Total Passes270

308Accurate Passes176

75%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

20Fouls28

4Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards–

3Offsides2