Deportivo Pasto 3–1 America de Cali: Result & Stats

Deportivo Pasto

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

America de Cali

D. Moreno 90+2' (pen), 74' (pen)

K. Londoño 13'

Pipe Gómez 28'

11/7/2024

Primera A · Clausura - 17Estadio Departamental Libertad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 173+ matches

Deportivo Pasto43%

×Draw29%

America de Cali28%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo PastoExpected goals in this matchAmerica de Cali

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

0.95

Deportivo Pasto

1.26

America de Cali

0.95

Deportivo Pasto creates 33% more chances

Season form · 173 home / 189 away

1.26

creates per match

1.04

0.85

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Deportivo Pasto

1.26

America de Cali

1.04

allows per match

Deportivo Pasto

0.85

America de Cali

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Pasto+0.00on par

America de Cali+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Pasto ↓

America de Cali →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Deportivo Pasto or draw

72%

Deportivo Pasto or America de Cali

71%

Draw or America de Cali

57%

Winning margin

Deportivo Pasto wins by 2+

20%

America de Cali wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Deportivo Pasto 1+ goals

72%

Deportivo Pasto 2+ goals

36%

Deportivo Pasto 3+ goals

13%

America de Cali 1+ goals

61%

America de Cali 2+ goals

25%

America de Cali 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Pasto (draw refunded)

61%

America de Cali (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Pasto at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.85 · 173 matches

America de Cali away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.26 · 189 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Pasto attack 1.26 + America de Cali defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.26

America de Cali attack 1.04 + Deportivo Pasto defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Deportivo Pasto scores more

43%

level

29%

America de Cali scores more

28%

Deportivo Pasto at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Deportivo Pasto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

D. Moreno

Deportivo Pasto · F

8.5

Match Events

-5'

-5'

13'

28'

45+2'

65'

70'

Kevin LondoñoPenalty confirmed

74'

D. MorenoPenalty

80'

E. Valencia← L. Paz

81'

Jose Bernal

82'

R. Vanegas← J. Bernal

83'

J. Sanchez← M. Zuleta

90'

Ray VanegasPenalty confirmed

90'

Juan Sanchez

90+3'

G. Torres← D. Chávez

90+5'

S. Tréllez← D. Moreno

90+2'

D. MorenoPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportivoAmerica

Overview

55%Possession45%

12Total Shots5

3Corners5

8Fouls18

Shots

12Total Shots5

6On Target1

3Off Target2

3Blocked2

9Inside Box3

3Outside Box2

Passing

55%Possession45%

317Total Passes260

248Accurate Passes191

78%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls18

1Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

4Offsides4