America de Cali 1–1 Deportivo Pasto: Result & Stats

America de Cali

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Deportivo Pasto

D. Martinez 5' (OG)

I. Alba 18'

2/8/2025

Primera A · Apertura - 3Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

America de Cali44%

×Draw29%

Deportivo Pasto28%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

America de CaliExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Pasto

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.95

America de Cali

1.27

Deportivo Pasto

0.95

America de Cali creates 34% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

1.28

creates per match

1.13

0.78

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

America de Cali

1.28

Deportivo Pasto

1.13

allows per match

America de Cali

0.78

Deportivo Pasto

1.26

-0.08on par

finishing

+0.07on par

finishing

America de Cali-0.08on par

Deportivo Pasto+0.07on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America de Cali ↓

Deportivo Pasto →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

America de Cali or draw

72%

America de Cali or Deportivo Pasto

71%

Draw or Deportivo Pasto

56%

Winning margin

America de Cali wins by 2+

20%

Deportivo Pasto wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

America de Cali 1+ goals

72%

America de Cali 2+ goals

36%

America de Cali 3+ goals

14%

Deportivo Pasto 1+ goals

61%

Deportivo Pasto 2+ goals

25%

Deportivo Pasto 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

America de Cali (draw refunded)

61%

Deportivo Pasto (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America de Cali at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.78 · 5 matches

Deportivo Pasto away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.26 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America de Cali attack 1.28 + Deportivo Pasto defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.27

Deportivo Pasto attack 1.13 + America de Cali defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

America de Cali scores more

44%

level

29%

Deportivo Pasto scores more

28%

America de Cali at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "America de Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

E. Balanta

America de Cali · M

7.5

Match Events

5'

D. MartinezOwn goal

18'

32'

45+2'

56'

60'

65'

66'

Y. Candelo← M. Castillo

66'

J. Micolta Piedahita← D. Vergara

66'

J. Lucumi← R. Holgado

67'

Éder Balanta

70'

G. Ritacco← F. Bone

71'

Y. Arboleda← G. Torres

73'

Fabian Villa

75'

Luis Caicedo

79'

D. Castillo← N. Morinigo

87'

Jan Lucumí

90+6'

Diego Martínez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AmericaDeportivo

Overview

68%Possession32%

14Total Shots9

8Corners6

11Fouls17

Shots

14Total Shots9

3On Target4

8Off Target3

3Blocked2

7Inside Box5

7Outside Box4

Passing

68%Possession32%

487Total Passes227

419Accurate Passes164

86%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls17

3Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

1Offsides0