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Deportivo Pasto vs America de Cali — Copa Colombia 2026

Deportivo Pasto
Deportivo Pasto
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
America de Cali
America de Cali
J. Quiñónes 27'
P. Franco 12' (pen)
3/13/2019Copa ColombiaCopa Colombia · Group Stage - 2Estadio Municipal De Ipiales (Ipiales)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Deportivo Pasto48%
×Draw26%
America de Cali25%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Pasto
1.49
America de Cali
1.00

Deportivo Pasto creates 49% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 17 away

creates per match

Deportivo Pasto
1.80
America de Cali
0.94

allows per match

Deportivo Pasto
1.07
America de Cali
1.18

finishing

Deportivo Pasto+0.00on par
America de Cali+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Pasto ↓

America de Cali →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Deportivo Pasto or draw
75%
Deportivo Pasto or America de Cali
74%
Draw or America de Cali
52%

Winning margin

Deportivo Pasto wins by 2+
24%
America de Cali wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Deportivo Pasto 1+ goals
77%
Deportivo Pasto 2+ goals
44%
Deportivo Pasto 3+ goals
19%
America de Cali 1+ goals
63%
America de Cali 2+ goals
26%
America de Cali 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Pasto (draw refunded)
66%
America de Cali (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Pasto at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

America de Cali away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Pasto attack 1.80 + America de Cali defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.49

America de Cali attack 0.94 + Deportivo Pasto defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Deportivo Pasto scores more
48%
level
26%
America de Cali scores more
25%

Deportivo Pasto at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Deportivo Pasto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
P. FrancoPenalty
27'
J. Quiñónes

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Colombia: Deportivo Pasto 0–2 America de Cali

America de Cali beat Deportivo Pasto 2-0 in Copa Colombia on March 13, 2019.

Goals: P. Franco (12' pen), J. Quiñónes (27').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal De Ipiales (Ipiales).