Deportivo Pasto 2–0 America de Cali: Result & Stats

Deportivo Pasto

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

America de Cali

G. Cellerino 88'

E. Toloza 43'

3/25/2018

Primera A · Apertura - 10Estadio Departamental Libertad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Deportivo Pasto45%

×Draw30%

America de Cali25%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo PastoExpected goals in this matchAmerica de Cali

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

0.81

Deportivo Pasto

1.18

America de Cali

0.81

Deportivo Pasto creates 46% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 16 away

1.06

creates per match

0.78

0.84

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Deportivo Pasto

1.06

America de Cali

0.78

allows per match

Deportivo Pasto

0.84

America de Cali

1.30

+0.72scores more than expected

finishing

-0.03on par

finishing

Deportivo Pasto+0.72scores more

America de Cali-0.03on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Pasto ↓

America de Cali →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Deportivo Pasto or draw

75%

Deportivo Pasto or America de Cali

70%

Draw or America de Cali

55%

Winning margin

Deportivo Pasto wins by 2+

19%

America de Cali wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Deportivo Pasto 1+ goals

69%

Deportivo Pasto 2+ goals

33%

Deportivo Pasto 3+ goals

12%

America de Cali 1+ goals

56%

America de Cali 2+ goals

19%

America de Cali 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Pasto (draw refunded)

64%

America de Cali (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Pasto at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.84 · 9 matches

America de Cali away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.30 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Pasto attack 1.06 + America de Cali defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.18

America de Cali attack 0.78 + Deportivo Pasto defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Deportivo Pasto scores more

45%

level

30%

America de Cali scores more

25%

Deportivo Pasto at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Deportivo Pasto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

E. Toloza

Deportivo Pasto · M

8.1

Match Events

12'

15'

40'

43'

46'

C. Giraldo← J. Guillermo

53'

Luis Arias

56'

C. Martínez← A. Mora

57'

C. Lizarazo← F. Micolta

68'

Juan Angulo

70'

R. Delgado← B. Lucumí

75'

G. Martínez← L. Arias

76'

C. Dájome← C. Valencia

84'

Carlos Giraldo

88'

G. Cellerino↳ G. García

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportivoAmerica

Overview

55%Possession45%

16Total Shots7

9Corners2

17Fouls17

Shots

16Total Shots7

5On Target2

9Off Target5

2Blocked0

11Inside Box4

5Outside Box3

Passing

55%Possession45%

374Total Passes303

285Accurate Passes222

76%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls17

4Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

1Offsides0