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Deportivo Paraguayo vs General Lamadrid — Primera C 2026

Deportivo Paraguayo
Deportivo Paraguayo
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
General Lamadrid
General Lamadrid
2/26/2024Primera CPrimera C · Apertura - 4Estadio José María Moraños

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Deportivo Paraguayo31%
×Draw30%
General Lamadrid40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Paraguayo
0.97
General Lamadrid
1.15

General Lamadrid creates 19% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 136 away

creates per match

Deportivo Paraguayo
0.57
General Lamadrid
1.01

allows per match

Deportivo Paraguayo
1.28
General Lamadrid
1.36

finishing

Deportivo Paraguayo+0.00on par
General Lamadrid+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Paraguayo ↓

General Lamadrid →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Deportivo Paraguayo or draw
60%
Deportivo Paraguayo or General Lamadrid
70%
Draw or General Lamadrid
69%

Winning margin

Deportivo Paraguayo wins by 2+
11%
General Lamadrid wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Deportivo Paraguayo 1+ goals
62%
Deportivo Paraguayo 2+ goals
25%
Deportivo Paraguayo 3+ goals
7%
General Lamadrid 1+ goals
68%
General Lamadrid 2+ goals
32%
General Lamadrid 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Paraguayo (draw refunded)
43%
General Lamadrid (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Paraguayo at home — creates 0.57, concedes 1.28 · 47 matches

General Lamadrid away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.36 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Paraguayo attack 0.57 + General Lamadrid defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 0.97

General Lamadrid attack 1.01 + Deportivo Paraguayo defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Deportivo Paraguayo scores more
31%
level
30%
General Lamadrid scores more
40%

General Lamadrid at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "General Lamadrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Paraguayo vs General Lamadrid

General Lamadrid beat Deportivo Paraguayo 1-0 in Primera C on February 26, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio José María Moraños in La Matanza, Provincia de Buenos Aires.