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Deportivo Paraguayo vs Central Cordoba — Primera C 2026

Deportivo Paraguayo
Deportivo Paraguayo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Central Cordoba
Central Cordoba
8/13/2024Primera CPrimera C · Clausura - 7Estadio José María Moraños

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Deportivo Paraguayo27%
×Draw32%
Central Cordoba41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Paraguayo
0.81
Central Cordoba
1.08

Central Cordoba creates 33% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 136 away

creates per match

Deportivo Paraguayo
0.57
Central Cordoba
0.89

allows per match

Deportivo Paraguayo
1.28
Central Cordoba
1.06

finishing

Deportivo Paraguayo+0.00on par
Central Cordoba+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Paraguayo ↓

Central Cordoba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–116%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Deportivo Paraguayo or draw
59%
Deportivo Paraguayo or Central Cordoba
68%
Draw or Central Cordoba
73%

Winning margin

Deportivo Paraguayo wins by 2+
9%
Central Cordoba wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Deportivo Paraguayo 1+ goals
56%
Deportivo Paraguayo 2+ goals
19%
Deportivo Paraguayo 3+ goals
5%
Central Cordoba 1+ goals
66%
Central Cordoba 2+ goals
29%
Central Cordoba 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Paraguayo (draw refunded)
39%
Central Cordoba (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Paraguayo at home — creates 0.57, concedes 1.28 · 47 matches

Central Cordoba away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.06 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Paraguayo attack 0.57 + Central Cordoba defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.81

Central Cordoba attack 0.89 + Deportivo Paraguayo defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Deportivo Paraguayo scores more
27%
level
32%
Central Cordoba scores more
41%

Central Cordoba at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Central Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Paraguayo vs Central Cordoba

Deportivo Paraguayo and Central Cordoba drew 1-1 in Primera C on August 13, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio José María Moraños in La Matanza, Provincia de Buenos Aires.