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Central Cordoba vs Deportivo Paraguayo — Primera C 2026

Central Cordoba
Central Cordoba
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Deportivo Paraguayo
Deportivo Paraguayo
3/12/2024Primera CPrimera C · Apertura - 7Estadio Gabino Sosa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Central Cordoba48%
×Draw29%
Deportivo Paraguayo22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Central Cordoba
1.27
Deportivo Paraguayo
0.76

Central Cordoba creates 67% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 50 away

creates per match

Central Cordoba
1.13
Deportivo Paraguayo
0.68

allows per match

Central Cordoba
0.83
Deportivo Paraguayo
1.42

finishing

Central Cordoba+0.00on par
Deportivo Paraguayo+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Cordoba ↓

Deportivo Paraguayo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Central Cordoba or draw
78%
Central Cordoba or Deportivo Paraguayo
71%
Draw or Deportivo Paraguayo
52%

Winning margin

Central Cordoba wins by 2+
22%
Deportivo Paraguayo wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Central Cordoba 1+ goals
72%
Central Cordoba 2+ goals
36%
Central Cordoba 3+ goals
14%
Deportivo Paraguayo 1+ goals
53%
Deportivo Paraguayo 2+ goals
18%
Deportivo Paraguayo 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Central Cordoba (draw refunded)
69%
Deportivo Paraguayo (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Cordoba at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.83 · 137 matches

Deportivo Paraguayo away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.42 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Cordoba attack 1.13 + Deportivo Paraguayo defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.27

Deportivo Paraguayo attack 0.68 + Central Cordoba defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Central Cordoba scores more
48%
level
29%
Deportivo Paraguayo scores more
22%

Central Cordoba at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Central Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Central Cordoba vs Deportivo Paraguayo

Central Cordoba beat Deportivo Paraguayo 1-0 in Primera C on March 12, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Gabino Sosa in Rosario, Provincia de Santa Fe.