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Deportivo Ocotal vs Deportivo Las Sabanas — Primera Division 2019

Deportivo Ocotal
Deportivo Ocotal
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Deportivo Las Sabanas
Deportivo Las Sabanas
8/24/2019Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Apertura - 5Estadio Roy Fernando Bermúdez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Deportivo Ocotal55%
×Draw25%
Deportivo Las Sabanas19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Ocotal
1.57
Deportivo Las Sabanas
0.81

Deportivo Ocotal creates 94% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 19 away

creates per match

Deportivo Ocotal
1.20
Deportivo Las Sabanas
0.58

allows per match

Deportivo Ocotal
1.04
Deportivo Las Sabanas
1.95

finishing

Deportivo Ocotal+0.00on par
Deportivo Las Sabanas+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Ocotal ↓

Deportivo Las Sabanas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Deportivo Ocotal or draw
81%
Deportivo Ocotal or Deportivo Las Sabanas
75%
Draw or Deportivo Las Sabanas
45%

Winning margin

Deportivo Ocotal wins by 2+
29%
Deportivo Las Sabanas wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Deportivo Ocotal 1+ goals
79%
Deportivo Ocotal 2+ goals
46%
Deportivo Ocotal 3+ goals
21%
Deportivo Las Sabanas 1+ goals
56%
Deportivo Las Sabanas 2+ goals
19%
Deportivo Las Sabanas 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Ocotal (draw refunded)
74%
Deportivo Las Sabanas (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Ocotal at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.04 · 110 matches

Deportivo Las Sabanas away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.95 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Ocotal attack 1.20 + Deportivo Las Sabanas defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.57

Deportivo Las Sabanas attack 0.58 + Deportivo Ocotal defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Deportivo Ocotal scores more
55%
level
25%
Deportivo Las Sabanas scores more
19%

Deportivo Ocotal at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Deportivo Ocotal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Division: Deportivo Ocotal 1–1 Deportivo Las Sabanas

Deportivo Ocotal and Deportivo Las Sabanas drew 1-1 in Primera Division on August 24, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Roy Fernando Bermúdez in Ocotal.