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Deportivo Las Sabanas vs Deportivo Ocotal — Primera Division 2019

Deportivo Las Sabanas
Deportivo Las Sabanas
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Deportivo Ocotal
Deportivo Ocotal
2/16/2020Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Clausura - 5Estadio Solidaridad Augusto Cesar Mendoza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Deportivo Las Sabanas55%
×Draw25%
Deportivo Ocotal20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Las Sabanas
1.64
Deportivo Ocotal
0.88

Deportivo Las Sabanas creates 86% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 112 away

creates per match

Deportivo Las Sabanas
0.94
Deportivo Ocotal
0.86

allows per match

Deportivo Las Sabanas
0.89
Deportivo Ocotal
2.33

finishing

Deportivo Las Sabanas+0.00on par
Deportivo Ocotal+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Las Sabanas ↓

Deportivo Ocotal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Deportivo Las Sabanas or draw
80%
Deportivo Las Sabanas or Deportivo Ocotal
75%
Draw or Deportivo Ocotal
45%

Winning margin

Deportivo Las Sabanas wins by 2+
30%
Deportivo Ocotal wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Deportivo Las Sabanas 1+ goals
81%
Deportivo Las Sabanas 2+ goals
49%
Deportivo Las Sabanas 3+ goals
23%
Deportivo Ocotal 1+ goals
59%
Deportivo Ocotal 2+ goals
22%
Deportivo Ocotal 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Las Sabanas (draw refunded)
73%
Deportivo Ocotal (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Las Sabanas at home — creates 0.94, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Deportivo Ocotal away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.33 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Las Sabanas attack 0.94 + Deportivo Ocotal defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.64

Deportivo Ocotal attack 0.86 + Deportivo Las Sabanas defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Deportivo Las Sabanas scores more
55%
level
25%
Deportivo Ocotal scores more
20%

Deportivo Las Sabanas at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Deportivo Las Sabanas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Division: Deportivo Las Sabanas 0–0 Deportivo Ocotal

Deportivo Las Sabanas and Deportivo Ocotal drew 0-0 in Primera Division on February 16, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Solidaridad Augusto Cesar Mendoza in Somoto.