Deportivo Muñiz 2–0 Defensores de Cambaceres

Deportivo Muñiz

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Defensores de Cambaceres

7/14/2024

Primera C · Clausura - 2Estadio Ricardo Puga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Deportivo Muñiz41%

×Draw30%

Defensores de Cambaceres29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo MuñizExpected goals in this matchDefensores de Cambaceres

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

0.89

Deportivo Muñiz

1.13

Defensores de Cambaceres

0.89

Deportivo Muñiz creates 27% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 48 away

1.09

creates per match

0.67

1.11

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Deportivo Muñiz

1.09

Defensores de Cambaceres

0.67

allows per match

Deportivo Muñiz

1.11

Defensores de Cambaceres

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Muñiz+0.00on par

Defensores de Cambaceres+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Muñiz ↓

Defensores de Cambaceres →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Deportivo Muñiz or draw

71%

Deportivo Muñiz or Defensores de Cambaceres

70%

Draw or Defensores de Cambaceres

59%

Winning margin

Deportivo Muñiz wins by 2+

17%

Defensores de Cambaceres wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Deportivo Muñiz 1+ goals

68%

Deportivo Muñiz 2+ goals

31%

Deportivo Muñiz 3+ goals

11%

Defensores de Cambaceres 1+ goals

59%

Defensores de Cambaceres 2+ goals

22%

Defensores de Cambaceres 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Muñiz (draw refunded)

59%

Defensores de Cambaceres (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Muñiz at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.11 · 46 matches

Defensores de Cambaceres away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.17 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Muñiz attack 1.09 + Defensores de Cambaceres defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.13

Defensores de Cambaceres attack 0.67 + Deportivo Muñiz defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Deportivo Muñiz scores more

41%

level

30%

Defensores de Cambaceres scores more

29%

Deportivo Muñiz at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Deportivo Muñiz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff