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Defensores de Cambaceres vs Deportivo Muñiz — Primera C 2026

Defensores de Cambaceres
Defensores de Cambaceres
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Deportivo Muñiz
Deportivo Muñiz
7/26/2025Primera CPrimera C · Round 19Estadio 12 de Octubre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Defensores de Cambaceres39%
×Draw31%
Deportivo Muñiz30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Defensores de Cambaceres
1.09
Deportivo Muñiz
0.91

Defensores de Cambaceres creates 20% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 47 away

creates per match

Defensores de Cambaceres
0.84
Deportivo Muñiz
0.83

allows per match

Defensores de Cambaceres
0.98
Deportivo Muñiz
1.34

finishing

Defensores de Cambaceres+0.00on par
Deportivo Muñiz+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Defensores de Cambaceres ↓

Deportivo Muñiz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Defensores de Cambaceres or draw
70%
Defensores de Cambaceres or Deportivo Muñiz
69%
Draw or Deportivo Muñiz
61%

Winning margin

Defensores de Cambaceres wins by 2+
16%
Deportivo Muñiz wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Defensores de Cambaceres 1+ goals
66%
Defensores de Cambaceres 2+ goals
30%
Defensores de Cambaceres 3+ goals
10%
Deportivo Muñiz 1+ goals
60%
Deportivo Muñiz 2+ goals
23%
Deportivo Muñiz 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Defensores de Cambaceres (draw refunded)
57%
Deportivo Muñiz (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Defensores de Cambaceres at home — creates 0.84, concedes 0.98 · 49 matches

Deportivo Muñiz away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.34 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Defensores de Cambaceres attack 0.84 + Deportivo Muñiz defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.09

Deportivo Muñiz attack 0.83 + Defensores de Cambaceres defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Defensores de Cambaceres scores more
39%
level
31%
Deportivo Muñiz scores more
30%

Defensores de Cambaceres at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Defensores de Cambaceres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera C: Defensores de Cambaceres 0–2 Deportivo Muñiz

Deportivo Muñiz beat Defensores de Cambaceres 2-0 in Primera C on July 26, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio 12 de Octubre in Buenos Aires.