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Deportivo Muñiz vs Berazategui — Primera C 2026

Deportivo Muñiz
Deportivo Muñiz
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Berazategui
Berazategui
6/1/2025Primera CPrimera C · Round 13Estadio Ciudad de San Miguel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Deportivo Muñiz35%
×Draw28%
Berazategui37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Muñiz
1.15
Berazategui
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 143 away

creates per match

Deportivo Muñiz
1.09
Berazategui
1.24

allows per match

Deportivo Muñiz
1.11
Berazategui
1.20

finishing

Deportivo Muñiz+0.00on par
Berazategui+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Muñiz ↓

Berazategui →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Deportivo Muñiz or draw
63%
Deportivo Muñiz or Berazategui
72%
Draw or Berazategui
65%

Winning margin

Deportivo Muñiz wins by 2+
14%
Berazategui wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Deportivo Muñiz 1+ goals
68%
Deportivo Muñiz 2+ goals
32%
Deportivo Muñiz 3+ goals
11%
Berazategui 1+ goals
69%
Berazategui 2+ goals
33%
Berazategui 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Muñiz (draw refunded)
49%
Berazategui (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Muñiz at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.11 · 46 matches

Berazategui away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.20 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Muñiz attack 1.09 + Berazategui defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.15

Berazategui attack 1.24 + Deportivo Muñiz defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Deportivo Muñiz scores more
35%
level
28%
Berazategui scores more
37%

Berazategui at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Berazategui will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera C: Deportivo Muñiz 1–0 Berazategui

Deportivo Muñiz beat Berazategui 1-0 in Primera C on June 1, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de San Miguel in San Miguel, Provincia de Buenos Aires.