Berazategui 1–0 Deportivo Muñiz: Result & Stats

Berazategui

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Deportivo Muñiz

3/16/2024

Primera C · Apertura - 8Estadio Norman Lee

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Berazategui48%

×Draw28%

Deportivo Muñiz24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BerazateguiExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Muñiz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.88

Berazategui

1.35

Deportivo Muñiz

0.88

Berazategui creates 53% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 47 away

1.35

creates per match

0.83

0.93

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Berazategui

1.35

Deportivo Muñiz

0.83

allows per match

Berazategui

0.93

Deportivo Muñiz

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Berazategui+0.00on par

Deportivo Muñiz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Berazategui ↓

Deportivo Muñiz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Berazategui or draw

76%

Berazategui or Deportivo Muñiz

72%

Draw or Deportivo Muñiz

52%

Winning margin

Berazategui wins by 2+

23%

Deportivo Muñiz wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Berazategui 1+ goals

74%

Berazategui 2+ goals

39%

Berazategui 3+ goals

15%

Deportivo Muñiz 1+ goals

59%

Deportivo Muñiz 2+ goals

22%

Deportivo Muñiz 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Berazategui (draw refunded)

66%

Deportivo Muñiz (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Berazategui at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.93 · 139 matches

Deportivo Muñiz away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.34 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Berazategui attack 1.35 + Deportivo Muñiz defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.35

Deportivo Muñiz attack 0.83 + Berazategui defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Berazategui scores more

48%

level

28%

Deportivo Muñiz scores more

24%

Berazategui at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Berazategui will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff