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Deportivo Muñiz vs Argentino Rosario — Primera C 2026

Deportivo Muñiz
Deportivo Muñiz
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Argentino Rosario
Argentino Rosario
2/18/2024Primera CPrimera C · Apertura - 3Estadio Ricardo Puga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Deportivo Muñiz38%
×Draw28%
Argentino Rosario34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Muñiz
1.20
Argentino Rosario
1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 47 away

creates per match

Deportivo Muñiz
1.09
Argentino Rosario
1.11

allows per match

Deportivo Muñiz
1.11
Argentino Rosario
1.30

finishing

Deportivo Muñiz+0.00on par
Argentino Rosario+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Muñiz ↓

Argentino Rosario →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Deportivo Muñiz or draw
66%
Deportivo Muñiz or Argentino Rosario
72%
Draw or Argentino Rosario
62%

Winning margin

Deportivo Muñiz wins by 2+
16%
Argentino Rosario wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Deportivo Muñiz 1+ goals
70%
Deportivo Muñiz 2+ goals
34%
Deportivo Muñiz 3+ goals
12%
Argentino Rosario 1+ goals
67%
Argentino Rosario 2+ goals
30%
Argentino Rosario 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Muñiz (draw refunded)
53%
Argentino Rosario (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Muñiz at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.11 · 46 matches

Argentino Rosario away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.30 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Muñiz attack 1.09 + Argentino Rosario defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.20

Argentino Rosario attack 1.11 + Deportivo Muñiz defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Deportivo Muñiz scores more
38%
level
28%
Argentino Rosario scores more
34%

Deportivo Muñiz at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Deportivo Muñiz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Muñiz vs Argentino Rosario

Deportivo Muñiz beat Argentino Rosario 3-1 in Primera C on February 18, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Ricardo Puga in General Rodríguez, Provincia de Buenos Aires.