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Argentino Rosario vs Deportivo Muñiz — Primera C 2026

Argentino Rosario
Argentino Rosario
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Deportivo Muñiz
Deportivo Muñiz
7/20/2024Primera CPrimera C · Clausura - 3Estadio José María Olaeta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Argentino Rosario48%
×Draw28%
Deportivo Muñiz24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Argentino Rosario
1.32
Deportivo Muñiz
0.84

Argentino Rosario creates 57% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 47 away

creates per match

Argentino Rosario
1.30
Deportivo Muñiz
0.83

allows per match

Argentino Rosario
0.86
Deportivo Muñiz
1.34

finishing

Argentino Rosario+0.00on par
Deportivo Muñiz+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Argentino Rosario ↓

Deportivo Muñiz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Argentino Rosario or draw
76%
Argentino Rosario or Deportivo Muñiz
72%
Draw or Deportivo Muñiz
52%

Winning margin

Argentino Rosario wins by 2+
22%
Deportivo Muñiz wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Argentino Rosario 1+ goals
73%
Argentino Rosario 2+ goals
38%
Argentino Rosario 3+ goals
15%
Deportivo Muñiz 1+ goals
57%
Deportivo Muñiz 2+ goals
21%
Deportivo Muñiz 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Argentino Rosario (draw refunded)
67%
Deportivo Muñiz (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Argentino Rosario at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.86 · 50 matches

Deportivo Muñiz away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.34 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Argentino Rosario attack 1.30 + Deportivo Muñiz defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.32

Deportivo Muñiz attack 0.83 + Argentino Rosario defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Argentino Rosario scores more
48%
level
28%
Deportivo Muñiz scores more
24%

Argentino Rosario at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Argentino Rosario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Argentino Rosario vs Deportivo Muñiz

Argentino Rosario beat Deportivo Muñiz 3-0 in Primera C on July 20, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio José María Olaeta in Rosario, Provincia de Santa Fe.