Deportivo Municipal vs Deportivo Llacuabamba

Deportivo Municipal

CANC

20:15

Deportivo Llacuabamba

8/31/2024

Segunda División · Promotion Round - 5Estadio Municipal Iván Elías Moreno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Deportivo Municipal41%

×Draw27%

Deportivo Llacuabamba32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo MunicipalExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Llacuabamba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.13

Deportivo Municipal

1.33

Deportivo Llacuabamba

1.13

Deportivo Municipal creates 18% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 61 away

1.00

creates per match

1.03

1.22

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Deportivo Municipal

1.00

Deportivo Llacuabamba

1.03

allows per match

Deportivo Municipal

1.22

Deportivo Llacuabamba

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Municipal+0.00on par

Deportivo Llacuabamba+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Municipal ↓

Deportivo Llacuabamba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Deportivo Municipal or draw

68%

Deportivo Municipal or Deportivo Llacuabamba

73%

Draw or Deportivo Llacuabamba

59%

Winning margin

Deportivo Municipal wins by 2+

19%

Deportivo Llacuabamba wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Deportivo Municipal 1+ goals

74%

Deportivo Municipal 2+ goals

38%

Deportivo Municipal 3+ goals

15%

Deportivo Llacuabamba 1+ goals

68%

Deportivo Llacuabamba 2+ goals

31%

Deportivo Llacuabamba 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Municipal (draw refunded)

57%

Deportivo Llacuabamba (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Municipal at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Deportivo Llacuabamba away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.66 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Municipal attack 1.00 + Deportivo Llacuabamba defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.33

Deportivo Llacuabamba attack 1.03 + Deportivo Municipal defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Deportivo Municipal scores more

41%

level

27%

Deportivo Llacuabamba scores more

32%

Deportivo Municipal at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Deportivo Municipal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff