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Deportivo Municipal vs Deportivo Llacuabamba — Primera División 2018

Deportivo Municipal
Deportivo Municipal
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Deportivo Llacuabamba
Deportivo Llacuabamba
9/8/2020Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 10Estadio Miguel Grau del Callao

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Deportivo Municipal48%
×Draw22%
Deportivo Llacuabamba30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Municipal
1.89
Deportivo Llacuabamba
1.44

Deportivo Municipal creates 31% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 13 away

creates per match

Deportivo Municipal
1.24
Deportivo Llacuabamba
1.69

allows per match

Deportivo Municipal
1.19
Deportivo Llacuabamba
2.54

finishing

Deportivo Municipal+0.00on par
Deportivo Llacuabamba+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Municipal ↓

Deportivo Llacuabamba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Deportivo Municipal or draw
70%
Deportivo Municipal or Deportivo Llacuabamba
78%
Draw or Deportivo Llacuabamba
52%

Winning margin

Deportivo Municipal wins by 2+
27%
Deportivo Llacuabamba wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Deportivo Municipal 1+ goals
85%
Deportivo Municipal 2+ goals
56%
Deportivo Municipal 3+ goals
29%
Deportivo Llacuabamba 1+ goals
76%
Deportivo Llacuabamba 2+ goals
42%
Deportivo Llacuabamba 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Municipal (draw refunded)
62%
Deportivo Llacuabamba (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Municipal at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.19 · 102 matches

Deportivo Llacuabamba away — creates 1.69, concedes 2.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Municipal attack 1.24 + Deportivo Llacuabamba defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 1.89

Deportivo Llacuabamba attack 1.69 + Deportivo Municipal defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Deportivo Municipal scores more
48%
level
22%
Deportivo Llacuabamba scores more
30%

Deportivo Municipal at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Deportivo Municipal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Deportivo Municipal 2–2 Deportivo Llacuabamba

Deportivo Municipal and Deportivo Llacuabamba drew 2-2 in Primera División on September 8, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Miguel Grau del Callao in Callao.