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Deportivo Municipal vs Comerciantes Unidos — Primera División 2018

Deportivo Municipal
Deportivo Municipal
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Comerciantes Unidos
Comerciantes Unidos
10/21/2018Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 8Estadio Ivan Elias Moreno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Deportivo Municipal51%
×Draw25%
Comerciantes Unidos25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Municipal
1.61
Comerciantes Unidos
1.04

Deportivo Municipal creates 55% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 63 away

creates per match

Deportivo Municipal
1.24
Comerciantes Unidos
0.89

allows per match

Deportivo Municipal
1.19
Comerciantes Unidos
1.98

finishing

Deportivo Municipal+0.00on par
Comerciantes Unidos+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Municipal ↓

Comerciantes Unidos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Deportivo Municipal or draw
75%
Deportivo Municipal or Comerciantes Unidos
75%
Draw or Comerciantes Unidos
49%

Winning margin

Deportivo Municipal wins by 2+
27%
Comerciantes Unidos wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Deportivo Municipal 1+ goals
80%
Deportivo Municipal 2+ goals
48%
Deportivo Municipal 3+ goals
22%
Comerciantes Unidos 1+ goals
65%
Comerciantes Unidos 2+ goals
28%
Comerciantes Unidos 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Municipal (draw refunded)
67%
Comerciantes Unidos (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Municipal at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.19 · 102 matches

Comerciantes Unidos away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.98 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Municipal attack 1.24 + Comerciantes Unidos defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.61

Comerciantes Unidos attack 0.89 + Deportivo Municipal defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Deportivo Municipal scores more
51%
level
25%
Comerciantes Unidos scores more
25%

Deportivo Municipal at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Deportivo Municipal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Deportivo Municipal 1–0 Comerciantes Unidos

Deportivo Municipal beat Comerciantes Unidos 1-0 in Primera División on October 21, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Ivan Elias Moreno in Lima.