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Comerciantes Unidos vs Deportivo Municipal — Primera División 2018

Comerciantes Unidos
Comerciantes Unidos
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Deportivo Municipal
Deportivo Municipal
7/25/2018Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 8Estadio Carlos Olivares

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Comerciantes Unidos41%
×Draw26%
Deportivo Municipal33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Comerciantes Unidos
1.44
Deportivo Municipal
1.27

Comerciantes Unidos creates 13% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 102 away

creates per match

Comerciantes Unidos
1.14
Deportivo Municipal
1.25

allows per match

Comerciantes Unidos
1.29
Deportivo Municipal
1.73

finishing

Comerciantes Unidos+0.00on par
Deportivo Municipal+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Comerciantes Unidos ↓

Deportivo Municipal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Comerciantes Unidos or draw
67%
Comerciantes Unidos or Deportivo Municipal
74%
Draw or Deportivo Municipal
59%

Winning margin

Comerciantes Unidos wins by 2+
20%
Deportivo Municipal wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Comerciantes Unidos 1+ goals
76%
Comerciantes Unidos 2+ goals
42%
Comerciantes Unidos 3+ goals
18%
Deportivo Municipal 1+ goals
72%
Deportivo Municipal 2+ goals
36%
Deportivo Municipal 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Comerciantes Unidos (draw refunded)
55%
Deportivo Municipal (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Comerciantes Unidos at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.29 · 66 matches

Deportivo Municipal away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.73 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Comerciantes Unidos attack 1.14 + Deportivo Municipal defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.44

Deportivo Municipal attack 1.25 + Comerciantes Unidos defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Comerciantes Unidos scores more
41%
level
26%
Deportivo Municipal scores more
33%

Comerciantes Unidos at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Comerciantes Unidos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Comerciantes Unidos vs Deportivo Municipal

Comerciantes Unidos and Deportivo Municipal drew 1-1 in Primera División on July 25, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Carlos Olivares in Guadalupe.