Deportivo Municipal 1–1 Carlos Stein

Deportivo Municipal

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Carlos Stein

2/22/2020

Primera División · Apertura - 4Estadio Universidad San Marcos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Deportivo Municipal49%

×Draw25%

Carlos Stein25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo MunicipalExpected goals in this matchCarlos Stein

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.05

Deportivo Municipal

1.57

Carlos Stein

1.05

Deportivo Municipal creates 50% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 32 away

1.24

creates per match

0.91

1.19

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Deportivo Municipal

1.24

Carlos Stein

0.91

allows per match

Deportivo Municipal

1.19

Carlos Stein

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Municipal+0.00on par

Carlos Stein+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Municipal ↓

Carlos Stein →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Deportivo Municipal or draw

75%

Deportivo Municipal or Carlos Stein

75%

Draw or Carlos Stein

51%

Winning margin

Deportivo Municipal wins by 2+

25%

Carlos Stein wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Deportivo Municipal 1+ goals

79%

Deportivo Municipal 2+ goals

46%

Deportivo Municipal 3+ goals

21%

Carlos Stein 1+ goals

65%

Carlos Stein 2+ goals

28%

Carlos Stein 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Municipal (draw refunded)

66%

Carlos Stein (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Municipal at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.19 · 102 matches

Carlos Stein away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.91 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Municipal attack 1.24 + Carlos Stein defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.57

Carlos Stein attack 0.91 + Deportivo Municipal defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Deportivo Municipal scores more

49%

level

25%

Carlos Stein scores more

25%

Deportivo Municipal at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Deportivo Municipal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Municipal vs Carlos Stein

Deportivo Municipal and Carlos Stein drew 1-1 in Primera División on February 22, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Universidad San Marcos in Lima.

Deportivo Municipal vs Carlos Stein — Primera División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Deportivo Municipal vs Carlos Stein