Carlos Stein vs Deportivo Municipal — Primera División 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 34+ matches
Carlos Stein38%
Deportivo Municipal37%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 34 home / 102 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over56
- Under44
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes59
- No41
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Carlos Stein ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Carlos Stein at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.68 · 34 matches
Deportivo Municipal away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.73 · 102 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Carlos Stein attack 1.21 + Deportivo Municipal defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.47
Deportivo Municipal attack 1.25 + Carlos Stein defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.46
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 38%?"
Carlos Stein at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 38% does not mean "Carlos Stein will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
Sporting Cristal
Alianza Lima
Real GarcilasoDeportivo Municipal
FBC Melgar
Union Comercio
Deportivo Binacional
Sport Boys
Sport Huancayo
Universitario
Sport Rosario
Academia Cantolao
U. San Martin
Ayacucho FC
Comerciantes UnidosFBC MelgarAlianza LimaAyacucho FCUniversitarioSporting CristalUnion ComercioU. San MartinReal GarcilasoAcademia CantolaoDeportivo MunicipalSport BoysComerciantes UnidosDeportivo BinacionalSport HuancayoSport RosarioIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Carlos Stein host Deportivo Municipal on Wednesday, 19 October 2022 at 20:00. The match is part of the Primera División 2018/2019 season.
Carlos Stein 1 – 4 Deportivo Municipal
Deportivo Municipal beat Carlos Stein 4-1 in Primera División on October 19, 2022.
Goals: G. Leyes (7' pen), A. Rodríguez (12'), A. Ascues (17'), R. Ovelar (35', 40').
The match was played at Estadio Víctor Montoya Segura in Jaén.