Deportivo Municipal 0–0 Atletico Grau

Deportivo Municipal

FT

0 – 0

Atletico Grau

8/14/2023

Primera División · Clausura - 8Estadio Municipal Iván Elías Moreno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Deportivo Municipal43%

×Draw28%

Atletico Grau29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo MunicipalExpected goals in this matchAtletico Grau

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.02

Deportivo Municipal

1.31

Atletico Grau

1.02

Deportivo Municipal creates 28% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 94 away

1.24

creates per match

0.86

1.19

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Deportivo Municipal

1.24

Atletico Grau

0.86

allows per match

Deportivo Municipal

1.19

Atletico Grau

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Municipal+0.00on par

Atletico Grau+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Municipal ↓

Atletico Grau →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Deportivo Municipal or draw

71%

Deportivo Municipal or Atletico Grau

72%

Draw or Atletico Grau

57%

Winning margin

Deportivo Municipal wins by 2+

20%

Atletico Grau wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Deportivo Municipal 1+ goals

73%

Deportivo Municipal 2+ goals

38%

Deportivo Municipal 3+ goals

14%

Atletico Grau 1+ goals

64%

Atletico Grau 2+ goals

27%

Atletico Grau 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Municipal (draw refunded)

60%

Atletico Grau (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Municipal at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.19 · 102 matches

Atletico Grau away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.38 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Municipal attack 1.24 + Atletico Grau defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.31

Atletico Grau attack 0.86 + Deportivo Municipal defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Deportivo Municipal scores more

43%

level

28%

Atletico Grau scores more

29%

Deportivo Municipal at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Deportivo Municipal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff