Atletico Grau 1–1 Deportivo Municipal

Atletico Grau

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Deportivo Municipal

E. Caballero 90+5'

P. Erustes 90+6'

3/12/2023

Primera División · Apertura - 8Estadio Municipal de Bernal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Atletico Grau49%

×Draw25%

Deportivo Municipal26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico GrauExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Municipal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.13

Atletico Grau

1.63

Deportivo Municipal

1.13

Atletico Grau creates 44% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 102 away

1.53

creates per match

1.25

1.01

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Atletico Grau

1.53

Deportivo Municipal

1.25

allows per match

Atletico Grau

1.01

Deportivo Municipal

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico Grau+0.00on par

Deportivo Municipal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Grau ↓

Deportivo Municipal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Atletico Grau or draw

74%

Atletico Grau or Deportivo Municipal

75%

Draw or Deportivo Municipal

51%

Winning margin

Atletico Grau wins by 2+

26%

Deportivo Municipal wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Atletico Grau 1+ goals

80%

Atletico Grau 2+ goals

48%

Atletico Grau 3+ goals

22%

Deportivo Municipal 1+ goals

68%

Deportivo Municipal 2+ goals

31%

Deportivo Municipal 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Atletico Grau (draw refunded)

65%

Deportivo Municipal (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Grau at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.01 · 92 matches

Deportivo Municipal away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.73 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Grau attack 1.53 + Deportivo Municipal defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.63

Deportivo Municipal attack 1.25 + Atletico Grau defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Atletico Grau scores more

49%

level

25%

Deportivo Municipal scores more

26%

Atletico Grau at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Atletico Grau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31

E. Caballero

Atletico Grau · D

7.5

Match Events

20'

24'

26'

31'

34'

41'

46'

A. Moyano← P. Vivanco

46'

R. Salinas← R. Sandoval

46'

J. Rostaing← P. de la Cruz

46'

J. Toledo← R. Aguilar

46'

L. Ramos← C. Olivares

46'

57'

66'

69'

69'

F. Márquez← N. Bandiera

73'

L. Rugel← O. Gaona

77'

N. Marcos← M. Tejada

78'

Jose Eduardo Caballero

90+5'

E. Caballero↳ N. Marcos

90+6'

P. Erustes↳ J. Céspedes

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoDeportivo

Overview

51%Possession49%

8Total Shots5

4Corners2

12Fouls19

Shots

8Total Shots5

1On Target2

6Off Target2

1Blocked1

5Inside Box2

3Outside Box3

Passing

51%Possession49%

369Total Passes362

296Accurate Passes295

80%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

12Fouls19

3Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards1

4Offsides2