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Deportivo Municipal vs Alianza Lima — Primera División 2018

Deportivo Municipal
Deportivo Municipal
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Alianza Lima
Alianza Lima
5/22/2022Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 15Estadio Municipal Iván Elías Moreno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Deportivo Municipal36%
×Draw28%
Alianza Lima36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Municipal
1.17
Alianza Lima
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 102 home / 151 away

creates per match

Deportivo Municipal
1.24
Alianza Lima
1.17

allows per match

Deportivo Municipal
1.19
Alianza Lima
1.09

finishing

Deportivo Municipal+0.00on par
Alianza Lima+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Municipal ↓

Alianza Lima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Deportivo Municipal or draw
64%
Deportivo Municipal or Alianza Lima
72%
Draw or Alianza Lima
64%

Winning margin

Deportivo Municipal wins by 2+
15%
Alianza Lima wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Deportivo Municipal 1+ goals
69%
Deportivo Municipal 2+ goals
33%
Deportivo Municipal 3+ goals
11%
Alianza Lima 1+ goals
69%
Alianza Lima 2+ goals
33%
Alianza Lima 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Municipal (draw refunded)
50%
Alianza Lima (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Municipal at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.19 · 102 matches

Alianza Lima away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.09 · 151 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Municipal attack 1.24 + Alianza Lima defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.17

Alianza Lima attack 1.17 + Deportivo Municipal defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Deportivo Municipal scores more
36%
level
28%
Alianza Lima scores more
36%

Deportivo Municipal at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Deportivo Municipal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Deportivo Municipal 0–3 Alianza Lima

Alianza Lima beat Deportivo Municipal 3-0 in Primera División on May 22, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Iván Elías Moreno in Lima.