Alianza Lima 2–1 Deportivo Municipal

Alianza Lima

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Deportivo Municipal

5/16/2023

Primera División · Apertura - 2Estadio Alejandro Villanueva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Alianza Lima55%

×Draw23%

Deportivo Municipal21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alianza LimaExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Municipal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.01

Alianza Lima

1.78

Deportivo Municipal

1.01

Alianza Lima creates 76% more chances

Season form · 151 home / 102 away

1.83

creates per match

1.25

0.77

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Alianza Lima

1.83

Deportivo Municipal

1.25

allows per match

Alianza Lima

0.77

Deportivo Municipal

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alianza Lima+0.00on par

Deportivo Municipal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Lima ↓

Deportivo Municipal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Alianza Lima or draw

79%

Alianza Lima or Deportivo Municipal

77%

Draw or Deportivo Municipal

45%

Winning margin

Alianza Lima wins by 2+

31%

Deportivo Municipal wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Alianza Lima 1+ goals

83%

Alianza Lima 2+ goals

53%

Alianza Lima 3+ goals

26%

Deportivo Municipal 1+ goals

64%

Deportivo Municipal 2+ goals

27%

Deportivo Municipal 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Alianza Lima (draw refunded)

72%

Deportivo Municipal (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Lima at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.77 · 151 matches

Deportivo Municipal away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.73 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Lima attack 1.83 + Deportivo Municipal defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.78

Deportivo Municipal attack 1.25 + Alianza Lima defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Alianza Lima scores more

55%

level

23%

Deportivo Municipal scores more

21%

Alianza Lima at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Alianza Lima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff