Deportivo Municipal 1–0 ADT: Result & Stats

Deportivo Municipal

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

ADT

M. Saravia 64'

7/27/2022

Primera División · Clausura - 4Estadio Municipal Iván Elías Moreno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Deportivo Municipal45%

×Draw26%

ADT29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo MunicipalExpected goals in this matchADT

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.08

Deportivo Municipal

1.43

ADT

1.08

Deportivo Municipal creates 32% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 78 away

1.24

creates per match

0.97

1.19

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Deportivo Municipal

1.24

ADT

0.97

allows per match

Deportivo Municipal

1.19

ADT

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Municipal+0.00on par

ADT+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Municipal ↓

ADT →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Deportivo Municipal or draw

71%

Deportivo Municipal or ADT

74%

Draw or ADT

55%

Winning margin

Deportivo Municipal wins by 2+

22%

ADT wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Deportivo Municipal 1+ goals

76%

Deportivo Municipal 2+ goals

42%

Deportivo Municipal 3+ goals

17%

ADT 1+ goals

66%

ADT 2+ goals

29%

ADT 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Municipal (draw refunded)

61%

ADT (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Municipal at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.19 · 102 matches

ADT away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.62 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Municipal attack 1.24 + ADT defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.43

ADT attack 0.97 + Deportivo Municipal defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Deportivo Municipal scores more

45%

level

26%

ADT scores more

29%

Deportivo Municipal at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Deportivo Municipal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

M. Saravia

Deportivo Municipal · D

8.3

Match Events

-5'

Jorge Bazan

14'

Williams Guzmán

43'

Marco Saravia

46'

P. Ratto← A. Rodríguez

62'

D. Caro← J. Reyes

64'

M. Saravia

70'

W. Mimbela← P. de la Cruz

70'

H. Rengifo← E. Ramírez

72'

73'

75'

78'

79'

R. Aguilar← F. Medina

79'

R. Espinoza← R. Ovelar

79'

C. Inga← H. Ancajima

79'

C. Vargas← Y. Tello

86'

K. Peña← M. Pérez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportivoADT

Overview

60%Possession40%

14Total Shots13

5Corners5

17Fouls18

Shots

14Total Shots13

5On Target5

6Off Target7

3Blocked1

7Inside Box5

7Outside Box8

Passing

60%Possession40%

421Total Passes273

328Accurate Passes184

78%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

Discipline

17Fouls18

3Yellow Cards3

3Offsides1