ADT 3–0 Deportivo Municipal: Result & Stats

ADT

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Deportivo Municipal

V. Perlaza 46'

J. Pósito 27', 21'

2/26/2023

Primera División · Apertura - 6Estadio Municipal Unión de Tarma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

ADT50%

×Draw25%

Deportivo Municipal25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ADTExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Municipal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.06

ADT

1.61

Deportivo Municipal

1.06

ADT creates 52% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 102 away

1.49

creates per match

1.25

0.88

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

ADT

1.49

Deportivo Municipal

1.25

allows per match

ADT

0.88

Deportivo Municipal

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ADT+0.00on par

Deportivo Municipal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ADT ↓

Deportivo Municipal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

ADT or draw

75%

ADT or Deportivo Municipal

75%

Draw or Deportivo Municipal

50%

Winning margin

ADT wins by 2+

26%

Deportivo Municipal wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

ADT 1+ goals

80%

ADT 2+ goals

48%

ADT 3+ goals

22%

Deportivo Municipal 1+ goals

65%

Deportivo Municipal 2+ goals

29%

Deportivo Municipal 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

ADT (draw refunded)

67%

Deportivo Municipal (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ADT at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.88 · 80 matches

Deportivo Municipal away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.73 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ADT attack 1.49 + Deportivo Municipal defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.61

Deportivo Municipal attack 1.25 + ADT defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

ADT scores more

50%

level

25%

Deportivo Municipal scores more

25%

ADT at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "ADT will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

89

J. Pósito

ADT · F

8.3

Match Events

2'

Leonardo Rugel

14'

W. Guzmán← L. Rugel

21'

J. Pósito↳ J. Palomino

27'

J. Pósito↳ K. Serna

46'

L. Ramos← J. Toledo

46'

V. Perlaza↳ K. Serna

67'

J. Agüero← W. Mimbela

68'

H. Rengifo← J. Pósito

72'

P. Erustes← S. Jaurena

73'

M. Delgado← A. Alfageme

74'

C. Velarde← J. Palomino

83'

D. Morales← V. Perlaza

87'

Rotceh Aguilar

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ADTDeportivo

Overview

37%Possession63%

9Total Shots9

5Corners4

16Fouls7

Shots

9Total Shots9

5On Target1

3Off Target6

1Blocked2

6Inside Box3

3Outside Box6

Passing

37%Possession63%

211Total Passes359

106Accurate Passes263

50%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls7

0Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1