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Deportivo Municipal vs Academia Cantolao — Segunda División 2018

Deportivo Municipal
Deportivo Municipal
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Academia Cantolao
Academia Cantolao
4/8/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 1Estadio Municipal Iván Elías Moreno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Deportivo Municipal41%
×Draw28%
Academia Cantolao31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Municipal
1.27
Academia Cantolao
1.05

Deportivo Municipal creates 21% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 28 away

creates per match

Deportivo Municipal
1.00
Academia Cantolao
0.89

allows per match

Deportivo Municipal
1.22
Academia Cantolao
1.54

finishing

Deportivo Municipal+0.00on par
Academia Cantolao+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Municipal ↓

Academia Cantolao →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Deportivo Municipal or draw
69%
Deportivo Municipal or Academia Cantolao
72%
Draw or Academia Cantolao
59%

Winning margin

Deportivo Municipal wins by 2+
19%
Academia Cantolao wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Deportivo Municipal 1+ goals
72%
Deportivo Municipal 2+ goals
36%
Deportivo Municipal 3+ goals
14%
Academia Cantolao 1+ goals
65%
Academia Cantolao 2+ goals
28%
Academia Cantolao 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Municipal (draw refunded)
57%
Academia Cantolao (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Municipal at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Academia Cantolao away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.54 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Municipal attack 1.00 + Academia Cantolao defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.27

Academia Cantolao attack 0.89 + Deportivo Municipal defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Deportivo Municipal scores more
41%
level
28%
Academia Cantolao scores more
31%

Deportivo Municipal at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Deportivo Municipal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Municipal vs Academia Cantolao

Deportivo Municipal beat Academia Cantolao 3-2 in Segunda División on April 8, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Iván Elías Moreno in Lima.