Academia Cantolao 0–2 Deportivo Municipal

Academia Cantolao

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Deportivo Municipal

6/6/2024

Segunda División · Round 10Estadio Municipal Iván Elías Moreno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Academia Cantolao37%

×Draw26%

Deportivo Municipal37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Academia CantolaoExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Municipal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.33

Academia Cantolao

1.35

Deportivo Municipal

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 9 away

1.14

creates per match

1.33

1.34

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Academia Cantolao

1.14

Deportivo Municipal

1.33

allows per match

Academia Cantolao

1.34

Deportivo Municipal

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Academia Cantolao+0.00on par

Deportivo Municipal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Academia Cantolao ↓

Deportivo Municipal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Academia Cantolao or draw

63%

Academia Cantolao or Deportivo Municipal

74%

Draw or Deportivo Municipal

63%

Winning margin

Academia Cantolao wins by 2+

17%

Deportivo Municipal wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Academia Cantolao 1+ goals

74%

Academia Cantolao 2+ goals

39%

Academia Cantolao 3+ goals

15%

Deportivo Municipal 1+ goals

74%

Deportivo Municipal 2+ goals

38%

Deportivo Municipal 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Academia Cantolao (draw refunded)

51%

Deportivo Municipal (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Academia Cantolao at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.34 · 29 matches

Deportivo Municipal away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Academia Cantolao attack 1.14 + Deportivo Municipal defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.35

Deportivo Municipal attack 1.33 + Academia Cantolao defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Academia Cantolao scores more

37%

level

26%

Deportivo Municipal scores more

37%

Academia Cantolao at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Academia Cantolao will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff