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Deportivo Moron vs Defensores Unidos — Primera Nacional 2026

Deportivo Moron
Deportivo Moron
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Defensores Unidos
Defensores Unidos
7/1/2023Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Group A - 23Estadio Nuevo Francisco Urbano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Deportivo Moron56%
×Draw28%
Defensores Unidos16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Moron
1.35
Defensores Unidos
0.58

Deportivo Moron creates 133% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 54 away

creates per match

Deportivo Moron
1.16
Defensores Unidos
0.46

allows per match

Deportivo Moron
0.70
Defensores Unidos
1.54

finishing

Deportivo Moron+0.00on par
Defensores Unidos+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Moron ↓

Defensores Unidos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Deportivo Moron or draw
84%
Deportivo Moron or Defensores Unidos
72%
Draw or Defensores Unidos
44%

Winning margin

Deportivo Moron wins by 2+
27%
Defensores Unidos wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Deportivo Moron 1+ goals
74%
Deportivo Moron 2+ goals
39%
Deportivo Moron 3+ goals
15%
Defensores Unidos 1+ goals
44%
Defensores Unidos 2+ goals
12%
Defensores Unidos 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Moron (draw refunded)
78%
Defensores Unidos (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Moron at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.70 · 129 matches

Defensores Unidos away — creates 0.46, concedes 1.54 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Moron attack 1.16 + Defensores Unidos defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.35

Defensores Unidos attack 0.46 + Deportivo Moron defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Deportivo Moron scores more
56%
level
28%
Defensores Unidos scores more
16%

Deportivo Moron at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Deportivo Moron will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Moron vs Defensores Unidos

Deportivo Moron beat Defensores Unidos 1-0 in Primera Nacional on July 1, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Francisco Urbano in Morón, Provincia de Buenos Aires.