Defensores Unidos 2–0 Deportivo Moron

Defensores Unidos

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Deportivo Moron

3/23/2024

Primera Nacional · Round 8Estadio Gigante de Villa Fox

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Defensores Unidos39%

×Draw33%

Deportivo Moron29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Defensores UnidosExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Moron

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

0.81

Defensores Unidos

1.00

Deportivo Moron

0.81

Defensores Unidos creates 23% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 130 away

0.96

creates per match

0.78

0.85

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Defensores Unidos

0.96

Deportivo Moron

0.78

allows per match

Defensores Unidos

0.85

Deportivo Moron

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Defensores Unidos+0.00on par

Deportivo Moron+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Defensores Unidos ↓

Deportivo Moron →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Defensores Unidos or draw

71%

Defensores Unidos or Deportivo Moron

67%

Draw or Deportivo Moron

61%

Winning margin

Defensores Unidos wins by 2+

15%

Deportivo Moron wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Defensores Unidos 1+ goals

63%

Defensores Unidos 2+ goals

26%

Defensores Unidos 3+ goals

8%

Deportivo Moron 1+ goals

56%

Deportivo Moron 2+ goals

19%

Deportivo Moron 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Defensores Unidos (draw refunded)

58%

Deportivo Moron (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Defensores Unidos at home — creates 0.96, concedes 0.85 · 54 matches

Deportivo Moron away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.04 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Defensores Unidos attack 0.96 + Deportivo Moron defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.00

Deportivo Moron attack 0.78 + Defensores Unidos defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Defensores Unidos scores more

39%

level

33%

Deportivo Moron scores more

29%

Defensores Unidos at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Defensores Unidos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff