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Deportivo Moron vs Atletico DE Rafaela — Primera Nacional 2026

Deportivo Moron
Deportivo Moron
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Atletico DE Rafaela
Atletico DE Rafaela
3/23/2022Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 7Estadio Nuevo Francisco Urbano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Deportivo Moron47%
×Draw31%
Atletico DE Rafaela23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Moron
1.18
Atletico DE Rafaela
0.72

Deportivo Moron creates 64% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 110 away

creates per match

Deportivo Moron
1.15
Atletico DE Rafaela
0.76

allows per match

Deportivo Moron
0.69
Atletico DE Rafaela
1.21

finishing

Deportivo Moron+0.00on par
Atletico DE Rafaela+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Moron ↓

Atletico DE Rafaela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Deportivo Moron or draw
77%
Deportivo Moron or Atletico DE Rafaela
69%
Draw or Atletico DE Rafaela
53%

Winning margin

Deportivo Moron wins by 2+
21%
Atletico DE Rafaela wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Deportivo Moron 1+ goals
69%
Deportivo Moron 2+ goals
33%
Deportivo Moron 3+ goals
12%
Atletico DE Rafaela 1+ goals
51%
Atletico DE Rafaela 2+ goals
16%
Atletico DE Rafaela 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Moron (draw refunded)
68%
Atletico DE Rafaela (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Moron at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.69 · 130 matches

Atletico DE Rafaela away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.21 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Moron attack 1.15 + Atletico DE Rafaela defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.18

Atletico DE Rafaela attack 0.76 + Deportivo Moron defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Deportivo Moron scores more
47%
level
31%
Atletico DE Rafaela scores more
23%

Deportivo Moron at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Deportivo Moron will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Nacional: Deportivo Moron 2–0 Atletico DE Rafaela

Deportivo Moron beat Atletico DE Rafaela 2-0 in Primera Nacional on March 23, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Francisco Urbano in Morón, Provincia de Buenos Aires.