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Atletico DE Rafaela vs Deportivo Moron — Primera Nacional 2026

Atletico DE Rafaela
Atletico DE Rafaela
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Deportivo Moron
Deportivo Moron
3/9/2024Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 6Estadio Nuevo Monumental

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Atletico DE Rafaela42%
×Draw31%
Deportivo Moron28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico DE Rafaela
1.13
Deportivo Moron
0.86

Atletico DE Rafaela creates 31% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 130 away

creates per match

Atletico DE Rafaela
1.21
Deportivo Moron
0.78

allows per match

Atletico DE Rafaela
0.95
Deportivo Moron
1.04

finishing

Atletico DE Rafaela+0.00on par
Deportivo Moron+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico DE Rafaela ↓

Deportivo Moron →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Atletico DE Rafaela or draw
72%
Atletico DE Rafaela or Deportivo Moron
69%
Draw or Deportivo Moron
58%

Winning margin

Atletico DE Rafaela wins by 2+
17%
Deportivo Moron wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Atletico DE Rafaela 1+ goals
68%
Atletico DE Rafaela 2+ goals
31%
Atletico DE Rafaela 3+ goals
11%
Deportivo Moron 1+ goals
58%
Deportivo Moron 2+ goals
21%
Deportivo Moron 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Atletico DE Rafaela (draw refunded)
60%
Deportivo Moron (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico DE Rafaela at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.95 · 110 matches

Deportivo Moron away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.04 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico DE Rafaela attack 1.21 + Deportivo Moron defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.13

Deportivo Moron attack 0.78 + Atletico DE Rafaela defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Atletico DE Rafaela scores more
42%
level
31%
Deportivo Moron scores more
28%

Atletico DE Rafaela at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Atletico DE Rafaela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Nacional: Atletico DE Rafaela 1–2 Deportivo Moron

Deportivo Moron beat Atletico DE Rafaela 2-1 in Primera Nacional on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Monumental in Rafaela, Provincia de Santa Fe.