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Deportivo Moron vs Almagro — Primera Nacional 2026

Deportivo Moron
Deportivo Moron
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Almagro
Almagro
2/4/2023Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Group A - 1Estadio Nuevo Francisco Urbano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 126+ matches

Deportivo Moron48%
×Draw30%
Almagro22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Moron
1.23
Almagro
0.73

Deportivo Moron creates 68% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 126 away

creates per match

Deportivo Moron
1.16
Almagro
0.77

allows per match

Deportivo Moron
0.70
Almagro
1.29

finishing

Deportivo Moron+0.00on par
Almagro+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Moron ↓

Almagro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Deportivo Moron or draw
78%
Deportivo Moron or Almagro
70%
Draw or Almagro
52%

Winning margin

Deportivo Moron wins by 2+
22%
Almagro wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Deportivo Moron 1+ goals
71%
Deportivo Moron 2+ goals
35%
Deportivo Moron 3+ goals
13%
Almagro 1+ goals
52%
Almagro 2+ goals
17%
Almagro 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Moron (draw refunded)
69%
Almagro (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Moron at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.70 · 129 matches

Almagro away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.29 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Moron attack 1.16 + Almagro defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.23

Almagro attack 0.77 + Deportivo Moron defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Deportivo Moron scores more
48%
level
30%
Almagro scores more
22%

Deportivo Moron at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Deportivo Moron will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Nacional: Deportivo Moron 0–1 Almagro

Almagro beat Deportivo Moron 1-0 in Primera Nacional on February 4, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Francisco Urbano in Morón, Provincia de Buenos Aires.