Almagro 0–1 Deportivo Moron: Result & Stats

Almagro

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Deportivo Moron

6/10/2023

Primera Nacional · Group A - 20Estadio Tres de Febrero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 128+ matches

Almagro39%

×Draw33%

Deportivo Moron28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlmagroExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Moron

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

0.79

Almagro

1.00

Deportivo Moron

0.79

Almagro creates 27% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 130 away

0.97

creates per match

0.78

0.79

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Almagro

0.97

Deportivo Moron

0.78

allows per match

Almagro

0.79

Deportivo Moron

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Almagro+0.00on par

Deportivo Moron+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almagro ↓

Deportivo Moron →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Almagro or draw

72%

Almagro or Deportivo Moron

67%

Draw or Deportivo Moron

61%

Winning margin

Almagro wins by 2+

15%

Deportivo Moron wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Almagro 1+ goals

63%

Almagro 2+ goals

26%

Almagro 3+ goals

8%

Deportivo Moron 1+ goals

55%

Deportivo Moron 2+ goals

19%

Deportivo Moron 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Almagro (draw refunded)

59%

Deportivo Moron (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almagro at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.79 · 128 matches

Deportivo Moron away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.04 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almagro attack 0.97 + Deportivo Moron defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.00

Deportivo Moron attack 0.78 + Almagro defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Almagro scores more

39%

level

33%

Deportivo Moron scores more

28%

Almagro at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Almagro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff