Deportivo Metalurgico 2–1 Belgrano Zarate

Deportivo Metalurgico

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Belgrano Zarate

2/25/2024

Torneo Promocional Amateur · Apertura - 1Estadio Armenia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Deportivo Metalurgico50%

×Draw29%

Belgrano Zarate21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo MetalurgicoExpected goals in this matchBelgrano Zarate

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.71

Deportivo Metalurgico

1.27

Belgrano Zarate

0.71

Deportivo Metalurgico creates 79% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 22 away

1.18

creates per match

0.55

0.86

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Deportivo Metalurgico

1.18

Belgrano Zarate

0.55

allows per match

Deportivo Metalurgico

0.86

Belgrano Zarate

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Metalurgico+0.00on par

Belgrano Zarate+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Metalurgico ↓

Belgrano Zarate →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Deportivo Metalurgico or draw

79%

Deportivo Metalurgico or Belgrano Zarate

71%

Draw or Belgrano Zarate

50%

Winning margin

Deportivo Metalurgico wins by 2+

23%

Belgrano Zarate wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Deportivo Metalurgico 1+ goals

72%

Deportivo Metalurgico 2+ goals

36%

Deportivo Metalurgico 3+ goals

14%

Belgrano Zarate 1+ goals

51%

Belgrano Zarate 2+ goals

16%

Belgrano Zarate 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Metalurgico (draw refunded)

71%

Belgrano Zarate (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Metalurgico at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.86 · 22 matches

Belgrano Zarate away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.36 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Metalurgico attack 1.18 + Belgrano Zarate defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.27

Belgrano Zarate attack 0.55 + Deportivo Metalurgico defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Deportivo Metalurgico scores more

50%

level

29%

Belgrano Zarate scores more

21%

Deportivo Metalurgico at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Deportivo Metalurgico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff