Belgrano Zarate 0–1 Deportivo Metalurgico

Belgrano Zarate

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Deportivo Metalurgico

7/20/2024

Torneo Promocional Amateur · Clausura - 1Estadio Luis Vallejos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Belgrano Zarate21%

×Draw28%

Deportivo Metalurgico51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Belgrano ZarateExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Metalurgico

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.78

1.38

Belgrano Zarate

0.78

Deportivo Metalurgico

1.38

Deportivo Metalurgico creates 77% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 22 away

0.61

creates per match

1.64

1.13

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Belgrano Zarate

0.61

Deportivo Metalurgico

1.64

allows per match

Belgrano Zarate

1.13

Deportivo Metalurgico

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Belgrano Zarate+0.00on par

Deportivo Metalurgico+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belgrano Zarate ↓

Deportivo Metalurgico →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–116%

0–211%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Belgrano Zarate or draw

49%

Belgrano Zarate or Deportivo Metalurgico

72%

Draw or Deportivo Metalurgico

79%

Winning margin

Belgrano Zarate wins by 2+

6%

Deportivo Metalurgico wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Belgrano Zarate 1+ goals

54%

Belgrano Zarate 2+ goals

18%

Belgrano Zarate 3+ goals

4%

Deportivo Metalurgico 1+ goals

75%

Deportivo Metalurgico 2+ goals

40%

Deportivo Metalurgico 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Belgrano Zarate (draw refunded)

29%

Deportivo Metalurgico (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belgrano Zarate at home — creates 0.61, concedes 1.13 · 23 matches

Deportivo Metalurgico away — creates 1.64, concedes 0.95 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belgrano Zarate attack 0.61 + Deportivo Metalurgico defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.78

Deportivo Metalurgico attack 1.64 + Belgrano Zarate defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Belgrano Zarate scores more

21%

level

28%

Deportivo Metalurgico scores more

51%

Deportivo Metalurgico at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Deportivo Metalurgico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff