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Deportivo Metalurgico vs Atletico Pilar — Torneo Promocional Amateur 2026

Deportivo Metalurgico
Deportivo Metalurgico
FT
4 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Atletico Pilar
Atletico Pilar
7/27/2024Torneo Promocional AmateurTorneo Promocional Amateur · Clausura - 2Estadio Municipal de Pilar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Deportivo Metalurgico54%
×Draw26%
Atletico Pilar21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Metalurgico
1.52
Atletico Pilar
0.83

Deportivo Metalurgico creates 83% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 21 away

creates per match

Deportivo Metalurgico
1.18
Atletico Pilar
0.81

allows per match

Deportivo Metalurgico
0.86
Atletico Pilar
1.86

finishing

Deportivo Metalurgico+0.00on par
Atletico Pilar+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Metalurgico ↓

Atletico Pilar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Deportivo Metalurgico or draw
79%
Deportivo Metalurgico or Atletico Pilar
74%
Draw or Atletico Pilar
46%

Winning margin

Deportivo Metalurgico wins by 2+
28%
Atletico Pilar wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Deportivo Metalurgico 1+ goals
78%
Deportivo Metalurgico 2+ goals
45%
Deportivo Metalurgico 3+ goals
20%
Atletico Pilar 1+ goals
56%
Atletico Pilar 2+ goals
20%
Atletico Pilar 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Metalurgico (draw refunded)
72%
Atletico Pilar (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Metalurgico at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.86 · 22 matches

Atletico Pilar away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.86 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Metalurgico attack 1.18 + Atletico Pilar defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.52

Atletico Pilar attack 0.81 + Deportivo Metalurgico defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Deportivo Metalurgico scores more
54%
level
26%
Atletico Pilar scores more
21%

Deportivo Metalurgico at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Deportivo Metalurgico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Metalurgico vs Atletico Pilar

Deportivo Metalurgico beat Atletico Pilar 4-0 in Torneo Promocional Amateur on July 27, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Pilar in Partido de Pilar, Provincia de Buenos Aires.