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Atletico Pilar vs Deportivo Metalurgico — Torneo Promocional Amateur 2026

Atletico Pilar
Atletico Pilar
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Deportivo Metalurgico
Deportivo Metalurgico
7/12/2026Torneo Promocional AmateurTorneo Promocional Amateur · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Atletico Pilar23%
×Draw24%
Deportivo Metalurgico53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Pilar
1.04
Deportivo Metalurgico
1.69

Deportivo Metalurgico creates 63% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 22 away

creates per match

Atletico Pilar
1.14
Deportivo Metalurgico
1.64

allows per match

Atletico Pilar
1.73
Deportivo Metalurgico
0.95

finishing

Atletico Pilar+0.00on par
Deportivo Metalurgico+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Pilar ↓

Deportivo Metalurgico →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Atletico Pilar or draw
47%
Atletico Pilar or Deportivo Metalurgico
76%
Draw or Deportivo Metalurgico
77%

Winning margin

Atletico Pilar wins by 2+
9%
Deportivo Metalurgico wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Atletico Pilar 1+ goals
65%
Atletico Pilar 2+ goals
28%
Atletico Pilar 3+ goals
9%
Deportivo Metalurgico 1+ goals
82%
Deportivo Metalurgico 2+ goals
50%
Deportivo Metalurgico 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Atletico Pilar (draw refunded)
31%
Deportivo Metalurgico (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Pilar at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.73 · 22 matches

Deportivo Metalurgico away — creates 1.64, concedes 0.95 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Pilar attack 1.14 + Deportivo Metalurgico defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.04

Deportivo Metalurgico attack 1.64 + Atletico Pilar defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Atletico Pilar scores more
23%
level
24%
Deportivo Metalurgico scores more
53%

Deportivo Metalurgico at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Deportivo Metalurgico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atletico Pilar vs Deportivo Metalurgico

Atletico Pilar and Deportivo Metalurgico drew 1-1 in Torneo Promocional Amateur on July 12, 2026.