Deportivo Merlo 2–2 Deportivo Armenio

Deportivo Merlo

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Deportivo Armenio

6/29/2024

Primera B Metropolitana · Clausura - 2Estadio José Manuel Moreno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Deportivo Merlo33%

×Draw31%

Deportivo Armenio36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo MerloExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Armenio

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

1.02

Deportivo Merlo

0.97

Deportivo Armenio

1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 103 home / 125 away

1.00

creates per match

0.99

1.06

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Deportivo Merlo

1.00

Deportivo Armenio

0.99

allows per match

Deportivo Merlo

1.06

Deportivo Armenio

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Merlo+0.00on par

Deportivo Armenio+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Merlo ↓

Deportivo Armenio →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–114%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Deportivo Merlo or draw

64%

Deportivo Merlo or Deportivo Armenio

69%

Draw or Deportivo Armenio

67%

Winning margin

Deportivo Merlo wins by 2+

12%

Deportivo Armenio wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Deportivo Merlo 1+ goals

62%

Deportivo Merlo 2+ goals

25%

Deportivo Merlo 3+ goals

7%

Deportivo Armenio 1+ goals

64%

Deportivo Armenio 2+ goals

27%

Deportivo Armenio 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Merlo (draw refunded)

48%

Deportivo Armenio (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Merlo at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.06 · 103 matches

Deportivo Armenio away — creates 0.99, concedes 0.94 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Merlo attack 1.00 + Deportivo Armenio defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.97

Deportivo Armenio attack 0.99 + Deportivo Merlo defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Deportivo Merlo scores more

33%

level

31%

Deportivo Armenio scores more

36%

Deportivo Armenio at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Deportivo Armenio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff